Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Mexico United win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Louisville City had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Mexico United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.17%). The likeliest Louisville City win was 1-2 (7.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%).