Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.