Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 21.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.