Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 69.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 12.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.85%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.