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MLS header WWW

Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer
May 13, 2023 at 6pm UK
Toyota Park
St Louis City

Chicago Fire
1 - 0
St Louis City

Czichos (40')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Chicago Fire and St Louis City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chicago Fire

All competitions
Last Game: Nashville 3-0 Chicago Fire
Sunday, May 7 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

St Louis City

All competitions
Last Game: Dallas 0-0 St Louis City
Sunday, May 7 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 15.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.

Result
Chicago FireDrawSt Louis City
64.76% (-3.146 -3.15)19.7% (0.525 0.53)15.54% (2.622 2.62)
Both teams to score 53.83% (5.253 5.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.46% (3.39 3.39)40.54% (-3.388 -3.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.07% (3.393 3.39)62.92% (-3.393 -3.39)
Chicago Fire Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.21% (0.133 0.13)11.79% (-0.134 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.01% (0.28100000000001 0.28)36.99% (-0.281 -0.28)
St Louis City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.03% (5.872 5.87)38.97% (-5.871 -5.87)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.3% (5.114 5.11)75.7% (-5.114 -5.11)
Score Analysis
    Chicago Fire 64.76%
    St Louis City 15.54%
    Draw 19.7%
Chicago FireDrawSt Louis City
2-0 @ 10.5% (-1.59 -1.59)
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.198 0.2)
1-0 @ 9.82% (-1.547 -1.55)
3-0 @ 7.48% (-1.088 -1.09)
3-1 @ 7.05% (0.177 0.18)
4-0 @ 4% (-0.558 -0.56)
4-1 @ 3.77% (0.114 0.11)
3-2 @ 3.32% (0.566 0.57)
4-2 @ 1.78% (0.31 0.31)
5-0 @ 1.71% (-0.229 -0.23)
5-1 @ 1.61% (0.057 0.06)
Other @ 3.82%
Total : 64.76%
1-1 @ 9.26% (0.137 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.66% (0.774 0.77)
0-0 @ 4.59% (-0.752 -0.75)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.307 0.31)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 19.7%
1-2 @ 4.36% (0.705 0.71)
0-1 @ 4.33% (0.042 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.04% (0.321 0.32)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.425 0.43)
1-3 @ 1.37% (0.393 0.39)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 15.54%

How you voted: Chicago Fire vs St Louis City

Chicago Fire
66.7%
Draw
11.1%
St Louis City
22.2%
9