Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 50.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 24.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.