Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.45%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.