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Africa Cup of Nations

Madagascar national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 11, 2024 at 3pm UK
Stade Larbi Zaouli
Gambia national football team

Madagascar
1 - 1
Gambia

Couturier (45+2')
Raveloson (25')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Minteh (90+7')
Manneh (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Madagascar and Gambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Madagascar 1-1 Comoros
Monday, September 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Gambia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Gambia 1-2 Tunisia
Sunday, September 8 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Madagascar had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Madagascar win was 1-0 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
MadagascarDrawGambia
32.1% (1.194 1.19)29.36% (0.074000000000002 0.07)38.55% (-1.264 -1.26)
Both teams to score 43.53% (0.125 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.72% (0.00099999999999767 0)63.28% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.33% (0.0030000000000001 0)82.67%
Madagascar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.85% (0.89299999999999 0.89)36.15% (-0.889 -0.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.06% (0.895 0.9)72.94% (-0.892 -0.89)
Gambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.17% (-0.765 -0.77)31.83% (0.768 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.74% (-0.882 -0.88)68.27% (0.887 0.89)
Score Analysis
    Madagascar 32.09%
    Gambia 38.55%
    Draw 29.35%
MadagascarDrawGambia
1-0 @ 11.7% (0.28 0.28)
2-1 @ 6.82% (0.183 0.18)
2-0 @ 5.96% (0.282 0.28)
3-1 @ 2.31% (0.115 0.12)
3-0 @ 2.02% (0.141 0.14)
3-2 @ 1.32% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 32.09%
1-1 @ 13.4% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 11.5%
2-2 @ 3.9% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 29.35%
0-1 @ 13.17% (-0.28 -0.28)
1-2 @ 7.67% (-0.138 -0.14)
0-2 @ 7.54% (-0.324 -0.32)
1-3 @ 2.93% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.88% (-0.188 -0.19)
2-3 @ 1.49% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 38.55%

How you voted: Madagascar vs Gambia

Madagascar
50.0%
Draw
28.1%
Gambia
21.9%
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