Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 46.22%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.