Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24

Feb 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadium Municipal

Toulouse
2 - 3
Marseille

Dallinga (3'), Onaiwu (87')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mbemba (52'), Under (59'), Tavares (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Toulouse 3-1 Rennes
Sunday, February 12 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Clermont 0-2 Marseille
Saturday, February 11 at 8.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Marseille
20.16% ( 0.17)	22.33% ( 0.11)	57.5% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 54.12% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.34% (

-0.25)

44.65% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.98% (

-0.24)

67.02% (

0.24)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.88% (

0.03)

36.12% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.09% (

0.03)

72.9% (

-0.03)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.73% (

-0.17)

15.27% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.03% (

-0.33)

43.97% (

0.33)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 20.16%

Marseille 57.5%

Draw 22.33%

Toulouse	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.8% Total : 20.16%	1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.33%	0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 6.1% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.56% Total : 57.5%