Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Marseille
Apr 6, 2025 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Gabriel Suazo 21' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 24' yellowcard
  • Mason Greenwood 57' goal
  • Adrien Rabiot 64' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Frank Magri 28'
  • yellowcard Shavy Babicka 32'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 56'
  • yellowcard Cristian Casseres Jr 68'
  • goal Vincent Sierro 76'

Marseille vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Mar 29, 2025 4.00pm
Reims 3 - 1 Marseille
Goals scored
74
Top scorer
Mason Greenwood

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
Mar 30, 2025 2.00pm
Toulouse 2 - 4 Brest
Goals scored
44
Top scorer
Zakaria Aboukhlal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 53.04%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result

Marseille 53.04% ▲ (+0.79)
Draw 22.75% ▼ (-0.42)
Toulouse 24.21% ▼ (-0.37)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.34% ▲ (+1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5 58.3% ▲ (+1.54)
Under 2.5 41.7% ▼ (-1.53)
Over 3.5 35.9% ▲ (+1.53)
Under 3.5 64.1% ▼ (-1.53)
Over 4.5 18.94% ▲ (+1.15)
Under 4.5 81.06% ▼ (-1.14)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 84.25% ▲ (+0.83)
Under 0.5 15.74% ▼ (-0.83)
Over 1.5 55.15% ▲ (+1.51)
Under 1.5 44.85% ▼ (-1.51)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 69.24% ▲ (+0.54)
Under 0.5 30.75% ▼ (-0.53)
Over 1.5 32.98% ▲ (+0.62)
Under 1.5 67.02% ▼ (-0.62)

Score analysis

Marseille 53.04%
Draw 22.75%
Toulouse 24.21%
Marseille
2-1 @ 9.76% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 8.95% ▼ (-0.37)
2-0 @ 8.27% ▼ (-0.11)
3-1 @ 6.01% ▲ (+0.19)
3-0 @ 5.1% ▲ (+0.09)
3-2 @ 3.55% ▲ (+0.16)
4-1 @ 2.78% ▲ (+0.16)
4-0 @ 2.36% ▲ (+0.11)
4-2 @ 1.64% ▲ (+0.12)
5-1 @ 1.03% ▼ (-93.18)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 53.04%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.55% ▼ (-0.27)
2-2 @ 5.75% ▲ (+0.10)
0-0 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.35)
3-3 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.75%
Toulouse
1-2 @ 6.22% ▼ (-0.07)
0-1 @ 5.71% ▼ (-0.32)
0-2 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.14)
1-3 @ 2.45% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.26% ▲ (+0.08)
0-3 @ 1.32% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 24.21%

Head to Head

Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Toulouse
Aug 31, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Frank Magri 27' redcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 44' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 49' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 73' yellowcard
  • Vincent Sierro 82' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 90' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 16'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 17'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 52' (OG)
  • yellowcard Lilian Brassier 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 30
Toulouse
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Moussa Diarra 39' yellowcard
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 45'+2' goal
  • Yann Gboho 82' goal
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 33'
  • goal Jean Onana 38'
  • yellowcard Azzedine Ounahi 47'
  • goal Faris Moumbagna 90'+6'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 5
Marseille
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Joaquin Correa 64' yellowcard
  • Amine Harit 89' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 80'+80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Niklas Schmidt 4'
  • yellowcard Mikkel Desler 45'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 77'
  • yellowcard Guillaume Restes 79'
  • yellowcard Mamady Bangre 90'+5'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 24
Toulouse
Feb 19, 2023 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT
Marseille
  • Thijs Dallinga 3' goal
  • Ado Onaiwu 87' goal
  • goal Chancel Mbemba 52'
  • goal Cengiz Under 59'
  • goal Nuno Tavares 78'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 16
Marseille
Dec 29, 2022 8.00pm
6
1
HT : 2 0
FT
Toulouse
  • Valentin Rongier 13' goal
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 41' goal
  • Sead Kolasinac 51' goal
  • Dimitri Payet 61' goal
  • Cengiz Under 80' goal
  • Nuno Tavares 82' goal
  • goal Branco van den Boomen 66'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 24
Marseille
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Orange Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Alvaro Gonzalez 15' yellowcard
  • Dimitri Payet 51' goal
  • yellowcard Jean-Victor Makengo 61'
  • yellowcard Issiaga Sylla 71'

Form Data

Reims 3 - 1 Marseille
PSG 3 - 1 Marseille
Marseille 0 - 1 Lens
Marseille 2 - 0 Nantes
Auxerre 3 - 0 Marseille
Marseille 5 - 1 St Etienne
Toulouse 2 - 4 Brest
Strasbourg 2 - 1 Toulouse
Toulouse 1 - 1 Monaco
Angers 0 - 4 Toulouse
Le Havre 1 - 4 Toulouse
Toulouse 0 - 1 PSG