Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25

Mar 8, 2025 at 8.05pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
0 - 1
Lens

Rongier (53'), Bennacer (77'), Balerdi (84'), Balerdi (85')

FT(HT: 0-0)

El Aynaoui (90+4')
Juma Bah (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nantes
Sunday, March 2 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Lens

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 3-4 Le Havre
Saturday, March 1 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.05%. A win for Lens had a probability of 25.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Lens
51.05% ( 0.14)	23.53% ( -0.03)	25.42% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 57.01% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.93% (

44.07% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.55% (

66.45% (

-0)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.68% (

0.05)

17.32% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.32% (

0.09)

47.68% (

-0.1)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.95% (

-0.1)

31.05% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.63% (

-0.11)

67.37% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Marseille 51.05%

Lens 25.42%

Draw 23.52%

Marseille	Draw	Lens
2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.3% 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 3.86% Total : 51.05%	1-1 @ 11.02% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.52%	1-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 25.42%