Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Nov 22, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Le Mans - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Nov 8, 2026 7.45pm
Lens 1 - 2 Marseille
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Le Mans

All competitions
Last game
Nov 8, 2026 4.15pm
Le Mans 1 - 1 Monaco
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Louis Mafouta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 59.49%. A draw has a probability of 22.96% and a win for Le Mans has a probability of 17.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.06%) , while for a Le Mans win it is 0-1 (5%).

Result

Marseille 59.49% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 22.96% ▼ (-0.03)
Le Mans 17.51% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.68% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.95% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 23.05% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 54.41% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 45.52%
Over 3.5 32.94%
Under 3.5 67.06%
Over 4.5 20.82% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 79.18% ▼ (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Marseille 45.11%
Draw 35.16%
Le Mans 19.72%

Team To Score First

Marseille 63.15%
No Goal 6.67%
Le Mans 30.18%

Corners

Over 8 59.24%
Equal 8 12.56%
Under 8 28.21%
Over 9 46.16%
Equal 9 13.08%
Under 9 40.76%
Over 10.5 33.9%
Under 10.5 66.1%

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 55.97% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 44.03% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 29.91% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 70.09% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 3.5 13.62% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 86.38% ▼ (-0.02)

Le Mans Goals

Over 0.5 51.81% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 0.5 48.19% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 21.59% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 78.41% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 7.11% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 92.89% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.05% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Marseille 59.5%
Draw 22.96%
Le Mans 17.5%
Marseille
1-0 @ 11.34%
2-0 @ 10.31% ▲ (+0.04)
2-1 @ 9.39% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 6.53%
3-1 @ 5.77%
3-2 @ 2.86%
Other @ 13.3% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 59.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.06% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.67%
2-2 @ 4.78% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 0.32% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 22.96%
Le Mans
0-1 @ 5%
1-2 @ 4.66% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 2.18% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.58%
1-3 @ 1.57%
Other @ 1.63%
Total : 17.5%