Ligue 1 Gameweek 10
Nov 8, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Lens vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lens

All competitions
Last game
Oct 30, 2026 8.05pm
Lille 1 - 0 Lens
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Florian Thauvin

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Nov 1, 2026 7.45pm
Marseille 2 - 0 Toulouse
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Lens win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Marseille has a probability of 35.11% and a draw has a probability of 22.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (5.74%) and 2-0 (4.99%). The likeliest Marseille win is 1-2 (7.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.07%).

Result

Lens 42.72% ▲ (+0.52)
Draw 22.13% ▲ (+0.10)
Marseille 35.11% ▼ (-0.69)

Both Teams to Score: 

66.4% ▼ (-0.02)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.26% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 1.5 14.74% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 67.04% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 2.5 32.96% ▼ (-0.37)
Over 3.5 45.13% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 3.5 54.87% ▼ (-0.42)
Over 4.5 29.4% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 4.5 70.6% ▼ (-0.27)

First Half Winner

Lens 32.18% ▼ (-0.60)
Draw 39.27% ▲ (+0.04)
Marseille 28.55% ▲ (+0.56)

Team To Score First

Lens 52.99% ▼ (-0.45)
No Goal 3.56% ▲ (+0.07)
Marseille 43.45% ▲ (+0.40)

Corners

Over 8 54.86% ▲ (+3.69)
Equal 8 12.47% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 8 32.66% ▼ (-4.13)
Over 9 42.42% ▲ (+2.90)
Equal 9 12.45% ▲ (+0.82)
Under 9 45.14% ▼ (-3.69)
Over 10.5 31.11% ▲ (+1.90)
Under 10.5 68.89% ▼ (-1.90)

Lens Goals

Over 1.5 50.3% ▲ (+0.90)
Under 1.5 49.7% ▼ (-0.90)
Over 2.5 26.27% ▲ (+0.63)
Under 2.5 73.73% ▼ (-0.62)
Over 3.5 11.61% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 3.5 88.39% ▼ (-0.24)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 71.38% ▼ (-0.39)
Under 0.5 28.62% ▲ (+0.39)
Over 1.5 43.39% ▼ (-0.22)
Under 1.5 56.61% ▲ (+0.22)
Over 2.5 20.71% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 79.29% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 8% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 92% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Lens 42.71%
Draw 22.14%
Marseille 35.11%
Lens
2-1 @ 8.57% ▲ (+0.06)
1-0 @ 5.74% ▼ (-0.13)
2-0 @ 4.99% ▲ (+0.16)
3-1 @ 4.95% ▲ (+0.17)
3-2 @ 4.17% ▲ (+0.04)
3-0 @ 3.21% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 11.08% ▲ (+0.16)
Total : 42.71%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.07% ▼ (-0.20)
2-2 @ 6.65% ▲ (+0.07)
0-0 @ 3.56% ▲ (+0.07)
3-3 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 0.53% ▲ (+0.10)
Total : 22.14%
Marseille
1-2 @ 7.7% ▼ (-0.11)
0-1 @ 5.4% ▼ (-0.18)
0-2 @ 4.16% ▼ (-0.15)
1-3 @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.08)
2-3 @ 3.82% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.43% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 7.47% ▼ (-0.13)
Total : 35.11%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Jan 24, 2026 8.05pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Stade Vélodrome
  • Amine Gouiri 3' goal
  • Ethan Nwaneri 13' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 58' yellowcard
  • Darryl Bakola 74' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Pavard 74' yellowcard
  • Matt O'Riley 74' yellowcard
  • Amine Gouiri 75' goal
  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Abdallah Sima 59'
  • yellowcard Rayan Fofana 71'
  • yellowcard Andrija Bulatovic 72'
  • yellowcard Anthony Bermont 78'
  • yellowcard Florian Sotoca 78'
  • goal Rayan Fofana 85'
Ligue 1
Oct 25, 2025 8.05pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 25
Mar 8, 2025 8.05pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Valentin Rongier 53' yellowcard
  • Ismael Bennacer 77' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Balerdi 84' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Balerdi 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Abdulay Juma Bah 60'
  • goal Neil El Aynaoui 90'+4'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Nov 23, 2024 4.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Bollaert-Delelis
  • Przemyslaw Frankowski 37' yellowcard
  • Deiver Machado 74' yellowcard
  • Angelo Fulgini 80' goal
  • Kevin Danso 83' yellowcard
  • Florian Sotoca 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Angelo Fulgini 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Valentin Rongier 19'
  • goal Valentin Rongier 49'
  • goal Luis Henrique 57'
  • yellowcard Geoffrey Kondogbia 66'
  • goal Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 89'
  • yellowcard Ulisses Garcia 90'+1'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 31
Apr 28, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 1' goal
  • Pape Gueye 41' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Balerdi 63' yellowcard
  • Pape Gueye 85' goal
  • yellowcard Kevin Danso 54'
  • yellowcard Elye Wahi 64'
  • goal Wesley Said 77'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Nov 12, 2023 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Bollaert-Delelis
  • Jonathan Gradit 44' yellowcard
  • Salis Abdul Samed 76' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Gradit 90' goal
  • yellowcard Renan Lodi 37'
  • yellowcard Vitor Oliveira 45'+2'