Europa League Gameweek 4
Nov 5, 2026 8.00pm
BayArena

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 8.00pm
B. Leverkusen 2 - 0 Celje

Marseille

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 55.9%. A win for Marseille has a probability of 23.49% and a draw has a probability of 20.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Marseille win is 1-2 (5.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.65%).

Result

Bayer Leverkusen 55.9%
Draw 20.61%
Marseille 23.49% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.62% ▲ (+0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.56% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 1.5 18.44% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 2.5 60.23% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 2.5 39.77% ▼ (-0.14)
Over 3.5 37.24% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 3.5 62.76% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 4.5 23.85% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 4.5 76.15% ▼ (-0.06)

First Half Winner

Bayer Leverkusen 38.83%
Draw 36.92%
Marseille 24.26%

Team To Score First

Bayer Leverkusen 57.41% ▲ (+0.02)
No Goal 4.47% ▼ (-0.05)
Marseille 38.12% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 47.62%
Equal 8 11.12%
Under 8 41.26%
Over 9 37.13%
Equal 9 10.48%
Under 9 52.38%
Over 10.5 27.98%
Under 10.5 72.02%

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 1.5 55.72% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 1.5 44.28% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 29.73% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 2.5 70.27% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 13.39% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 86.61% ▼ (-0.04)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 59% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 0.5 41% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 1.5 28.42% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 71.58% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 10.6% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 89.4% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 3.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 96.39% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 55.91%
Draw 20.6%
Marseille 23.49%
Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 9.93% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 8.82% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 8.61% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 5.85% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 5.75%
3-2 @ 3.6%
Other @ 13.35% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 55.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.65%
2-2 @ 5.3% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.47% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.14% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.04%
Total : 20.6%
Marseille
1-2 @ 5.85% ▲ (+0.01)
0-1 @ 5.15% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.07% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.24%
2-3 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.57% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 23.49%