Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5

Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Gerard Houllier

Lyon
2 - 3
Marseille

Caleta-Car (53'), Cherki (90+3')
Mata (45+1'), Lacazette (59'), Caleta-Car (90+3'), Cherki (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lirola (69'), Garcia (82'), Rowe (90+5')
Balerdi (1'), De Zerbi (45+8'), Maupay (90+3')
Balerdi (5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lyon

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Lyon	Draw	Marseille
34.37% ( 0.13)	24.21% ( -0.01)	41.41% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 60.22% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.7% (

0.12)

42.31% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.29% (

0.11)

64.71% (

-0.1)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.83% (

0.13)

24.17% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.51% (

0.18)

58.49% (

-0.17)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.41% (

20.59% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.87% (

-0.01)

53.13% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Lyon 34.37%

Marseille 41.41%

Draw 24.21%

Lyon	Draw	Marseille
2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 34.37%	1-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.21%	1-2 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.84% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.3% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 41.41%