Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.76%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.