Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (5.7%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.