Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 56.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 21.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.