Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Rennes win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.