Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 7

Oct 5, 2024 at 6pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
2 - 1
Toulouse

Gomes (57'), Bakker (72')
Gomes (8'), Alexsandro (15'), Santos (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Aboukhlal (39')
Sidibe (44'), Magri (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lille 1-0 Real Madrid
Wednesday, October 2 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Toulouse

All competitions

Last Game: Toulouse 1-2 Lyon
Sunday, September 29 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 49.37%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Toulouse
49.37% ( 0.27)	24.1% ( -0.06)	26.53% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 56.14% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.3% (

0.09)

45.7% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.98% (

0.09)

68.02% (

-0.09)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.41% (

0.14)

18.58% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.14% (

0.24)

49.86% (

-0.24)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.95% (

-0.12)

31.04% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.64% (

-0.14)

67.36% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Lille 49.37%

Toulouse 26.53%

Draw 24.09%

Lille	Draw	Toulouse
1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.35% Total : 49.37%	1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.09%	0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.88% Total : 26.53%