Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25

Mar 8, 2025 at 6pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
1 - 0
Montpellier

David (50')
Alexsandro (9'), Diakite (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nzingoula (36'), Sainte-Luce (71'), Kouyate (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Dortmund 1-1 Lille
Tuesday, March 4 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 0-4 Rennes
Sunday, March 2 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 71.7%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 11.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
71.7% ( -0.92)	16.43% ( 0.52)	11.87% ( 0.41)

Both teams to score 55.37% (

-0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.49% (

-1.48)

33.51% (

1.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.69% (

-1.71)

55.31% (

1.72)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.79% (

-0.55)

8.21% (

0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.27% (

-1.39)

28.73% (

1.4)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.32% (

-0.37)

39.68% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.64% (

-0.34)

76.36% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Lille 71.69%

Montpellier HSC 11.87%

Draw 16.43%

Lille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
2-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.41) 3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.16) 5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.12) 5-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.09) 6-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.1) 6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.2% Total : 71.69%	1-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.43%	1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.58% Total : 11.87%