Liga MX Gameweek 4
Aug 16, 2026 12.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Mexico City Stadium
  • Aarón Quirós 13' yellowcard
  • Nico Carrera 90'+9' yellowcard

Atlante vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlante

All competitions
Liga MX
Last game
Aug 2, 2026 4.00am
Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Atlante

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Aug 3, 2026 2.05am
Toluca 3 - 1 Necaxa

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Atlante had a probability of 34.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.73%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Atlante win was 1-0 (8.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result

Atlante 34.69% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 25.59% ▲ (+0.02)
Toluca 39.72% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.93% ▲ (+0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.12% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 23.88% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 52.35% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 47.65% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 29.44% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 70.56% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 16.51% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 83.49% ▲ (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Atlante 30.86% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 41.4% ▼ (-0.14)
Toluca 27.75% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Atlante 46.64%
No Goal 6.69%
Toluca 46.67%

Corners

Over 8 53.02% ▼ (-0.12)
Equal 8 11.39% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 35.6% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 9 41.84% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 9 11.18% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 9 46.98% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 10.5 31.73% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 10.5 68.27% ▲ (+0.08)

Atlante Goals

Over 1.5 36.13% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 63.87% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 13.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 86.14% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 4.59%
Under 3.5 95.41%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 72.52% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 0.5 27.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 40.2%
Under 1.5 59.8%
Over 2.5 17.03%
Under 2.5 82.97%
Over 3.5 5.57% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.43% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Atlante 34.7%
Draw 25.58%
Toluca 39.72%
Atlante
1-0 @ 8.46% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.28%
2-0 @ 5.43% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 3.35%
3-0 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.28%
Other @ 4.48%
Total : 34.7%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.96% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.69%
2-2 @ 5.6% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.22%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.58%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.91%
0-1 @ 8.73% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.38% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.98%
0-3 @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.96%
Other @ 5.46% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 39.72%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Jul 10, 2026 1.00am
Estadio Nemesio Díez