Liga MX Gameweek 4
Aug 16, 2026 12.00am
Mexico City Stadium

Atlante vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlante

All competitions
Liga MX
Last game
Aug 2, 2026 4.00am
Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Atlante

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Aug 3, 2026 2.05am
Toluca 3 - 1 Necaxa

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Atlante has a probability of 34.7% and a draw has a probability of 25.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Atlante win is 1-0 (8.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.97%).

Result

Atlante 34.7% (-0.17)
Draw 25.58% (+0.12)
Toluca 39.75% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.91% (-0.48)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.13% (-0.44)
Under 1.5 23.87% (+0.43)
Over 2.5 52.32% (-0.61)
Under 2.5 47.61% (+0.54)
Over 3.5 29.43% (-0.59)
Under 3.5 70.54% (+0.56)
Over 4.5 16.52% (-0.42)
Under 4.5 83.48% (+0.42)

First Half Winner

Atlante 30.78% (-0.01)
Draw 41.53% (+0.07)
Toluca 27.7% (-0.04)

Team To Score First

Atlante 46.64% (-0.08)
No Goal 6.69% (+0.18)
Toluca 46.67% (-0.11)

Corners

Over 8 53.14% (-0.07)
Equal 8 11.4%
Under 8 35.46% (+0.07)
Over 9 41.95% (-0.05)
Equal 9 11.2%
Under 9 46.86% (+0.07)
Over 10.5 31.8% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 68.19% (+0.04)

Atlante Goals

Over 1.5 36.12% (-0.45)
Under 1.5 63.88% (+0.45)
Over 2.5 13.85% (-0.30)
Under 2.5 86.15% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 4.59% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 95.41% (+0.12)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 72.54% (-0.13)
Under 0.5 27.46% (+0.14)
Over 1.5 40.2% (-0.29)
Under 1.5 59.8% (+0.29)
Over 2.5 17.03% (-0.26)
Under 2.5 82.97% (+0.27)
Over 3.5 5.58% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 94.42% (+0.13)

Score analysis

Atlante 34.71%
Draw 25.58%
Toluca 39.74%
Atlante
1-0 @ 8.47% (+0.11)
2-1 @ 8.28% (-0.04)
2-0 @ 5.44% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 3.35% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 2.41% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.07)
Other @ 4.48% (-0.12)
Total : 34.71%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.97% (+0.08)
0-0 @ 6.69% (+0.18)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.08)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.58%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.91%
0-1 @ 8.74% (+0.17)
0-2 @ 6.39% (+0.10)
1-3 @ 3.98% (-0.06)
0-3 @ 3.29% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.96% (-0.07)
Other @ 5.47% (-0.13)
Total : 39.74%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Jul 10, 2026 1.00am
Estadio Nemesio Díez