Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.22%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.