Serie A Gameweek 28
Lecce
Mar 8, 2025 5.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Nikola Krstovic 7' goal
  • Medon Berisha 42' yellowcard
  • Nikola Krstovic 59' goal
  • Nikola Krstovic 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sergio Conceicao 45'+4'
  • goal Antonino Gallo 68' (OG)
  • goal Christian Pulisic 73'
  • goal Christian Pulisic 81'
  • yellowcard Tammy Abraham 88'

Lecce vs AC Milan - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Lecce

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2025 7.45pm
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Lecce
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Nikola Krstovic

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Mar 2, 2025 7.45pm
AC Milan 1 - 2 Lazio
Goals scored
61
Top scorer
Christian Pulisic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 59.47%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 17.57%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.41%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result

Lecce 17.57% ▼ (-0.06)
Draw 22.96% ▼ (-0.01)
AC Milan 59.47% ▲ (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.68% ▼ (-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5 49.04% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 50.96% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 27.17% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 72.83% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 4.5 12.76% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 4.5 87.24% ▲ (+0.04)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5 57.31% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 0.5 42.69% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 1.5 20.97% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 79.03% ▲ (+0.10)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 83.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 0.5 16.79% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 53.24% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 46.76% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Lecce 17.57%
Draw 22.95%
AC Milan 59.46%
Lecce
1-0 @ 6.1% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 4.63% ▼ (-0.02)
2-0 @ 2.6% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 1.32% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 1.17% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 17.57%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.88% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.17% ▲ (+0.02)
2-2 @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 22.95%
AC Milan
0-1 @ 12.79% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 11.41% ▲ (+0.03)
1-2 @ 9.71% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 6.79% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 5.78% ▼ (-0.01)
0-4 @ 3.03% ▲ (+0.01)
1-4 @ 2.58% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.46% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.01)
0-5 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 59.46%

Head to Head

Serie A Gameweek 6
AC Milan
Sep 27, 2024 7.45pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Alvaro Morata 38' goal
  • Theo Hernandez 41' goal
  • Christian Pulisic 43' goal
  • Emerson 49' yellowcard
  • Davide Bartesaghi 80' redcard
  • yellowcard Federico Baschirotto 34'
Serie A Gameweek 31
AC Milan
Apr 6, 2024 2.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Christian Pulisic 6' goal
  • Olivier Giroud 20' goal
  • Rafael Leao 57' goal
  • Samuel Chukwueze 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alexis Blin 34'
  • redcard Nikola Krstovic 45'
Serie A Gameweek 12
Lecce
Nov 11, 2023 2.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Ylber Ramadani 45' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Espeto 62' yellowcard
  • Nicola Sansone 66' goal
  • Lameck Banda 70' goal
  • Roberto Piccoli 85' yellowcard
  • Joan Gonzalez 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Olivier Giroud 28'
  • goal Tijjani Reijnders 35'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 44'
  • yellowcard Yunus Musah 80'
  • yellowcard Davide Calabria 80'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Florenzi 90'
  • redcard Olivier Giroud 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Olivier Giroud 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Rade Krunic 90'+5'
Serie A Gameweek 31
AC Milan
Apr 23, 2023 5.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Lecce
  • Rafael Leao 40' goal
  • Rafael Leao 74' goal
Serie A Gameweek 18
Lecce
Jan 14, 2023 5.00pm
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Theo Hernandez 3' goal
  • Federico Baschirotto 23' goal
  • goal Rafael Leao 58'
  • goal Davide Calabria 70'
Serie A Gameweek 27
Lecce
Jun 22, 2020 6.30pm
1
4
HT : 0 1
FT Via del Mare
AC Milan
  • Fabio Lucioni 49' yellowcard
  • Marco Mancosu 54' goal
  • goal Samu Castillejo 26'
  • yellowcard Simon Kjaer 45'+3'
  • goal Giacomo Bonaventura 55'
  • goal Ante Rebic 57'
  • yellowcard Matteo Gabbia 63'
  • goal Rafael Leao 72'

Form Data

Fiorentina 1 - 0 Lecce
Lecce 0 - 1 Udinese
Monza 0 - 0 Lecce
Lecce 0 - 0 Bologna
Parma 1 - 3 Lecce
Lecce 0 - 4 Inter Milan
AC Milan 1 - 2 Lazio
Bologna 2 - 1 AC Milan
Torino 2 - 1 AC Milan
AC Milan 1 - 1 Feyenoord
AC Milan 1 - 0 Hellas Verona
Feyenoord 1 - 0 AC Milan