Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 53.43%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 24% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.