Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 53.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.