Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 46.62%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.58%) and 1-2 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 1-0 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.