Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.