Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 38.79%. A draw had a probability of 31.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.59%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.