Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 13.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.06%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.9%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.