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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 58.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
58.72% ( -0.36) | 23.62% ( 0.17) | 17.65% ( 0.19) |
Both teams to score 45.93% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.6% ( -0.36) | 53.39% ( 0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.07% ( -0.3) | 74.93% ( 0.3) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.06% ( -0.26) | 17.93% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.24% ( -0.45) | 48.76% ( 0.45) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.96% ( 0.03) | 44.03% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.85% ( 0.02) | 80.15% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 11.66% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.72% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( -0) Other @ 0.67% Total : 23.62% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 1.63% Total : 17.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 91 | 44 | 47 | 89 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 44 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 87 | 45 | 42 | 82 |
P | Wrexham | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 84 | 51 | 33 | 82 |
4 | MK Dons | 44 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 74 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 70 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 68 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 66 |
8 | Walsall | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 66 | 65 | 1 | 65 |
9 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 64 |
10 | Gillingham | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 63 |
11 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 62 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 44 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 62 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 60 |
14 | Notts County | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 88 | 85 | 3 | 58 |
15 | Morecambe | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 76 | -13 | 57 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 44 | 16 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 71 | -10 | 55 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 54 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 44 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 74 | 78 | -4 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 44 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 63 | 80 | -17 | 47 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 55 | 72 | -17 | 46 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 53 | 78 | -25 | 40 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 41 | 77 | -36 | 36 |
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