Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.