Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.12%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.