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Championship header 2

League Two
Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 38
Mar 25, 2023 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Rochdale

Crawley
2 - 0
Rochdale

Telford (35'), Conroy (39')
Ogungbo (13')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Ebanks-Landell (38'), Kelly (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Rochdale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
Last Game: Crawley 1-1 Doncaster
Tuesday, March 21 at 7.45pm in League Two

Rochdale

All competitions
Last Game: Rochdale 4-4 Swindon
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Rochdale

 Effectively consigning their visitors to the drop, Crawley can pull 10 points clear of Rochdale with a win and are likely to do so. Despite their last-gasp heroics last time out, Dale are too vulnerable defensively and rarely do well on the road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 47.2%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawRochdale
47.2% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07) 25.89% (0.030000000000001 0.03) 26.9% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Both teams to score 50.78% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.11% (-0.086999999999996 -0.09)52.88% (0.086999999999996 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.5% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)74.49% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.6% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)22.4% (0.07 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.09% (-0.104 -0.1)55.91% (0.105 0.1)
Rochdale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.43% (-0.011999999999986 -0.01)34.56% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.72% (-0.012 -0.01)71.28% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 47.2%
    Rochdale 26.9%
    Draw 25.89%
Crawley TownDrawRochdale
1-0 @ 11.58% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.21% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.66% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.59% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.32% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.72% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.62% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 47.2%
1-1 @ 12.3% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.74% (0.027 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.89% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 25.89%
0-1 @ 8.22% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 4.37% (0.012 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.32% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.55% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 26.9%

How you voted: Crawley vs Rochdale

Crawley Town
66.7%
Draw
6.7%
Rochdale
26.7%
15
Head to Head
Aug 27, 2022 3pm
Rochdale
1-1
Crawley
Sinclair (60')
Rodney (32'), Henderson (84')
Powell (45+2')
Johnson (11'), Ransom (36'), Tsaroulla (53')
Tsaroulla (86')
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Crawley
1-0
Rochdale
Nadesan (18')
Davies (85')
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
Rochdale
0-1
Crawley

Cashman (90+4')
Appiah (14')
Bansal-McNulty (60'), Craig (85')
Jan 17, 2015 3pm
Rochdale
4-1
Crawley
Tanser (33'), Henderson (38', 88'), Andrew (93')
Elliott (76')
Tomlin (7')
Sep 6, 2014 3pm
Crawley
0-4
Rochdale

McLeod (74')
Done (10'), Vincenti (54', 66'), Andrew (75')
Andrew (77'), Rafferty (80')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall18114334191537
2Port Vale1910542619735
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster199642822633
4Crewe AlexandraCrewe188732216631
5Grimsby Town1910182728-131
6AFC Wimbledon1893630161430
7MK Dons1793530191130
8Chesterfield1977533231028
9Notts County187742518728
10Gillingham188281916326
11Bradford CityBradford186752319425
12Salford City186661719-224
13BarrowBarrow186571817123
14Bromley185852323023
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham196582528-323
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood175752322122
17Newport CountyNewport186482128-722
18Colchester UnitedColchester184952322121
19Harrogate TownHarrogate1963101628-1221
20Accrington StanleyAccrington184682533-818
21Tranmere RoversTranmere184681225-1318
22Swindon TownSwindon193792333-1016
23Morecambe1935111934-1514
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1835101530-1514
> League Two Full Table


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