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Championship header 2

League Two
Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 38
Mar 25, 2023 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Rochdale

Crawley
2 - 0
Rochdale

Telford (35'), Conroy (39')
Ogungbo (13')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Ebanks-Landell (38'), Kelly (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Rochdale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
Last Game: Crawley 1-1 Doncaster
Tuesday, March 21 at 7.45pm in League Two

Rochdale

All competitions
Last Game: Rochdale 4-4 Swindon
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Rochdale

 Effectively consigning their visitors to the drop, Crawley can pull 10 points clear of Rochdale with a win and are likely to do so. Despite their last-gasp heroics last time out, Dale are too vulnerable defensively and rarely do well on the road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 47.2%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawRochdale
47.2% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07) 25.89% (0.030000000000001 0.03) 26.9% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Both teams to score 50.78% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.11% (-0.086999999999996 -0.09)52.88% (0.086999999999996 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.5% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)74.49% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.6% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)22.4% (0.07 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.09% (-0.104 -0.1)55.91% (0.105 0.1)
Rochdale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.43% (-0.011999999999986 -0.01)34.56% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.72% (-0.012 -0.01)71.28% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 47.2%
    Rochdale 26.9%
    Draw 25.89%
Crawley TownDrawRochdale
1-0 @ 11.58% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.21% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.66% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.59% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.32% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.72% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.62% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 47.2%
1-1 @ 12.3% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.74% (0.027 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.89% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 25.89%
0-1 @ 8.22% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 4.37% (0.012 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.32% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.55% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 26.9%

How you voted: Crawley vs Rochdale

Crawley Town
66.7%
Draw
6.7%
Rochdale
26.7%
15
Head to Head
Aug 27, 2022 3pm
Rochdale
1-1
Crawley
Sinclair (60')
Rodney (32'), Henderson (84')
Powell (45+2')
Johnson (11'), Ransom (36'), Tsaroulla (53')
Tsaroulla (86')
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Crawley
1-0
Rochdale
Nadesan (18')
Davies (85')
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
Rochdale
0-1
Crawley

Cashman (90+4')
Appiah (14')
Bansal-McNulty (60'), Craig (85')
Jan 17, 2015 3pm
Rochdale
4-1
Crawley
Tanser (33'), Henderson (38', 88'), Andrew (93')
Elliott (76')
Tomlin (7')
Sep 6, 2014 3pm
Crawley
0-4
Rochdale

McLeod (74')
Done (10'), Vincenti (54', 66'), Andrew (75')
Andrew (77'), Rafferty (80')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CStockport CountyStockport452711795464992
4MK Dons452381479641577
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster45217177166570
6Crewe AlexandraCrewe451913136864470
7BarrowBarrow451814136155668
8Crawley TownCrawley45207187167467
9Bradford CityBradford451812155758-166
10Walsall451811166868065
11Gillingham45189184455-1163
12AFC Wimbledon451614155950962
13Harrogate TownHarrogate451711175867-962
14Notts County45187208985461
15Tranmere RoversTranmere45176226666057
16Morecambe45179196478-1457
17Newport CountyNewport45167226172-1155
18Accrington StanleyAccrington45159215970-1154
19Swindon TownSwindon451411207480-653
20Salford City451311216480-1650
21Grimsby Town451116185772-1549
22Colchester UnitedColchester451111235879-2144
23Sutton UnitedSutton45914225580-2541
RForest Green RoversForest Green45109264378-3539
> League Two Full Table


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