Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 29.84% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.16%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.