Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 35.4%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.27%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (12.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wigan Athletic would win this match.