League One Gameweek 40
Apr 21, 2026 7.45pm
AESSEAL New York Stadium

Rotherham United vs Luton Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rotherham United

All competitions
Last game
Apr 14, 2026 7.45pm
Wigan 3 - 0 Rotherham
Goals scored
36
Top scorer
S. Nombe

Luton Town

All competitions
Last game
Apr 15, 2026 7.45pm
Luton 2 - 1 Northampton
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Gideon Kadua

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Luton Town win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for Rotherham United has a probability of 27.32% and a draw has a probability of 25.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Rotherham United win is 1-0 (8.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.15%).

Result

Rotherham United 27.32% (-0.17)
Draw 25.96% (-0.67)
Luton Town 46.69% (+0.79)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.94% (+0.85)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.17% (+0.83)
Under 1.5 27.83% (-0.84)
Over 2.5 46.85% (+1.10)
Under 2.5 53.15% (-1.10)
Over 3.5 25.29% (+0.65)
Under 3.5 74.71% (-0.66)
Over 4.5 13.49% (+0.42)
Under 4.5 86.51% (-0.41)

First Half Winner

Rotherham United 22.79% (-0.64)
Draw 42.81% (+0.52)
Luton Town 34.4% (+0.12)

Team To Score First

Rotherham United 35.98% (-0.29)
No Goal 8.01% (-0.28)
Luton Town 56.01% (+0.56)

Corners

Over 8 57.2% (+0.39)
Equal 8 12.27% (+0.18)
Under 8 30.53% (-0.58)
Over 9 44.73% (+0.16)
Equal 9 12.48% (+0.25)
Under 9 42.8% (-0.39)
Over 10.5 33.2% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 66.8% (+0.05)

Rotherham United Goals

Over 1.5 26.92% (-0.16)
Under 1.5 73.08% (+0.16)
Over 2.5 8.94% (+0.12)
Under 2.5 91.06% (-0.13)
Over 3.5 2.31% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.69% (-0.02)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5 75.14% (+0.35)
Under 0.5 24.86% (-0.34)
Over 1.5 42.99% (+1.22)
Under 1.5 57.01% (-1.22)
Over 2.5 18.22% (+0.80)
Under 2.5 81.78% (-0.80)
Over 3.5 6.34% (+0.38)
Under 3.5 93.66% (-0.38)

Score analysis

Rotherham United 27.33%
Draw 25.96%
Luton Town 46.68%
Rotherham United
1-0 @ 8.56% (-0.09)
2-1 @ 6.36% (-0.13)
2-0 @ 4.44% (-0.12)
3-1 @ 2.41% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 1.74% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 1.62% (+0.09)
Other @ 2.2% (+0.04)
Total : 27.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.15% (-0.28)
0-0 @ 8.01% (-0.28)
2-2 @ 4.83% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.11% (-0.01)
Total : 25.96%
Luton Town
0-1 @ 11.23% (-0.50)
1-2 @ 9.48% (+0.31)
0-2 @ 8.72% (+0.14)
1-3 @ 4.56% (+0.27)
0-3 @ 4.11% (+0.20)
2-3 @ 2.35% (+0.02)
Other @ 6.23% (+0.39)
Total : 46.68%

Head to Head

League One
Nov 15, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 42
Apr 15, 2023 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT AESSEAL New York Stadium
  • goal Carlton Morris 45'
  • goal Cauley Woodrow 47'
Championship Gameweek 21
Nov 12, 2022 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Kenilworth Road Stadium
  • Luke Berry 90' goal
  • goal Jamie Lindsay 1'
Championship Gameweek 26
May 4, 2021 7.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Kenilworth Road Stadium
  • yellowcard Michael Smith 43'
Championship Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2020 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT AESSEAL New York Stadium
  • Mickel Miller 77' yellowcard
  • goal James Collins 70'
  • yellowcard Luke Berry 90'+1'
League Two
Mar 31, 2009 3.00pm
2
4
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Chris Martin 16' yellowcard
  • Chris Martin 42' goal
  • Asa Hall 70' goal
  • goal Reuben Reid 11'
  • yellowcard Pablo Mills 16'
  • yellowcard Ian Sharps 20'
  • goal Drewe Broughton 38'
  • goal Danny Harrison 53'
  • yellowcard Drewe Broughton 62'