Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 67.44%. A draw had a probability of 20.96% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 11.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.17%) , while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.