Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 1-0 (8.58%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.