Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.