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Championship header 2

League One

Crawley Town
League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 26, 2025 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Northampton Town

Crawley
3 - 0
Northampton

Hepburn-Murphy (39'), Kelley (66'), Doyle (88')
Fraser (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Crawley Town and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
Last Game: Crawley 3-1 Exeter
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League One

Northampton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Northampton 4-1 Shrewsbury
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawNorthampton Town
40.46% (0.097000000000001 0.1)24.39% (0.004999999999999 0)35.15% (-0.102 -0.1)
Both teams to score 59.76% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.02% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)42.98% (0.050000000000004 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.62% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)65.38% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.68% (0.025000000000006 0.03)21.32% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.73% (0.036999999999999 0.04)54.27% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.95% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)24.05% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.68% (-0.112 -0.11)58.32% (0.113 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 40.46%
    Northampton Town 35.15%
    Draw 24.39%
Crawley TownDrawNorthampton Town
2-1 @ 8.73% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.92% (0.023000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.12% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.2% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.15% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.74% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.22% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 40.46%
1-1 @ 11.29% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.22% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.13% (0.011 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.52% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.39%
1-2 @ 8.05% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.31% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 5.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.82% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.95% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.36% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.05% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 35.15%

How you voted: Crawley vs Northampton

Crawley Town
66.7%
Draw
0.0%
Northampton Town
33.3%
6
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 14
Northampton
3-0
Crawley
Fosu (16'), Williams (30' og.), Pinnock (55')
Fox (84')

Darcy (75'), Williams (84')
> Preview
Mar 4, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 35
Northampton
1-0
Crawley
Sowerby (79')
Aug 16, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Crawley
2-3
Northampton
Balagizi (4', 61')
Hoskins (13', 23'), Bowie (90+2')
Hylton (90+6')
Jan 8, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 26
Northampton
0-1
Crawley

Horsfall (90+3')
Nichols (41')
Lynch (9'), Ashford (87')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 5
Crawley
0-0
Northampton
Powell (83')
Connolly (90')