League One Gameweek 45
Apr 26, 2025 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT The People's Pension Stadium
  • Rushian Hepburn-Murphy 39' goal
  • Jeremy Kelley 66' goal
  • Kami Doyle 88' goal
  • Liam Fraser 90'+1' yellowcard

Crawley Town vs Northampton Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
Last game
Apr 21, 2025 3.00pm
Crawley 3 - 1 Exeter
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Rushian Hepburn-Murphy

Northampton Town

All competitions
Last game
Apr 21, 2025 3.00pm
Northampton 4 - 1 Shrewsbury
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Cameron McGeehan

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result

Crawley Town 40.46% (+0.10)
Draw 24.39% (+0.01)
Northampton Town 35.15% (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.76% (-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5 57.02% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 42.98% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 34.62% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 65.38% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 17.98% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 82.02% (+0.04)

Crawley Town Goals

Over 0.5 78.68% (+0.03)
Under 0.5 21.32% (-0.03)
Over 1.5 45.73% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 54.27% (-0.04)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5 75.95% (-0.08)
Under 0.5 24.05% (+0.08)
Over 1.5 41.68% (-0.12)
Under 1.5 58.32% (+0.12)

Score analysis

Crawley Town 40.46%
Draw 24.39%
Northampton Town 35.15%
Crawley Town
2-1 @ 8.73% (+0.02)
1-0 @ 7.92% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 6.12% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.5% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.2% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.15% (+0.02)
4-1 @ 1.74% (+0.01)
4-2 @ 1.24% (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.22% (+0.01)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 40.46%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.29% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.22% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 5.13% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.52% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.39%
Northampton Town
1-2 @ 8.05% (-0.02)
0-1 @ 7.31% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.21% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 3.82% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 2.95% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.47% (-0.02)
1-4 @ 1.36% (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.05% (-0.01)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 35.15%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 14
Oct 26, 2024 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Sixfields Stadium
  • Tariqe Fosu 16' goal
  • Jay Williams 30' goal
  • Mitchell Pinnock 55' goal
  • Ben Fox 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ronan Darcy 75'
  • yellowcard Jay Williams 84'
League Two Gameweek 35
Mar 4, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jack Sowerby 79' goal
League Two Gameweek 4
Aug 16, 2022 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT The People's Pension Stadium
  • James Balagizi 4' goal
  • James Balagizi 61' goal
  • goal Sam Hoskins 13'
  • goal Sam Hoskins 23'
  • goal Kieron Bowie 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Danny Hylton 90'+6'
League Two Gameweek 26
Jan 8, 2022 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Fraser Horsfall 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joel Lynch 9'
  • goal Tom Nichols 41'
  • yellowcard Sam Ashford 87'
League Two Gameweek 5
Aug 28, 2021 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jack Powell 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Dylan Connolly 90'
League Two Gameweek 23
Dec 26, 2019 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Nathan Ferguson 27' goal
  • Beryly Lubala 62' goal
  • Ollie Palmer 80' goal
  • Mason Bloomfield 84' goal
  • yellowcard Alan McCormack 44'
  • yellowcard Scott Wharton 75'