Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.