Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Shelbourne had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Shelbourne win was 0-1 (6.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.