/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Ffralog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
-
Michael Olise
55'
-
Dayot Upamecano
73'
-
Dayot Upamecano
85'
-
Nicolò Fagioli
54'
-
Alessandro Bastoni
68'
-
Moise Kean
73'
-
Antonio Vergara
82'
-
Alessandro Bastoni
90'+2'
France vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F07%2Ficonsport-370896-0021-1-6a68765b28b1e342967647.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fkayode-italy-6abae4ffec3b9732216899.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 45.88%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
Result
France
45.88%
▼
(-0.03)
Draw
23.49%
▼
(-0.04)
Italy
30.66%
▲
(+0.09)
Both Teams to Score:
59.08%
▲
(+0.20)
Goals
Over 1.5
81.27%
▲
(+0.23)
Under 1.5
18.73%
▼
(-0.24)
Over 2.5
61.28%
▲
(+0.29)
Under 2.5
38.72%
▼
(-0.29)
Over 3.5
38.24%
▼
(-0.08)
Under 3.5
61.76%
▲
(+0.08)
Over 4.5
23.56%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 4.5
76.44%
▲
(+0.01)
First Half Winner
France
31.56%
▼
(-0.06)
Draw
40.45%
▼
(-0.13)
Italy
27.99%
▲
(+0.19)
Team To Score First
France
49.18%
▲
(+0.03)
No Goal
4.85%
▼
(-0.06)
Italy
45.97%
▲
(+0.04)
Corners
Over 8
54.7%
▲
(+0.06)
Equal 8
10.23%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 8
35.07%
▼
(-0.07)
Over 9
44.46%
▲
(+0.04)
Equal 9
10.24%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 9
45.3%
▼
(-0.06)
Over 10.5
34.95%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 10.5
65.05%
▼
(-0.04)
France Goals
Over 1.5
49.42%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 1.5
50.58%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 2.5
25.4%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 2.5
74.6%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 3.5
10.42%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 3.5
89.58%
▼
(-0.05)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
67%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 0.5
33%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 1.5
36.89%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 1.5
63.11%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 2.5
15.18%
▲
(+0.07)
Under 2.5
84.82%
▼
(-0.07)
Over 3.5
5.4%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 3.5
94.6%
▲
(+0.01)
Score analysis
France
45.89%
Draw
23.49%
Italy
30.67%
France
2-1
@
8.97%
▲
(+0.09)
1-0 @ 7.78% ▼ (-0.10)
2-0 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 5.01% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 4.48% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 3.71% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 10.02% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 45.89%
1-0 @ 7.78% ▼ (-0.10)
2-0 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 5.01% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 4.48% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 3.71% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 10.02% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 45.89%
Draw
1-1
@
9.98%
2-2 @ 6.48% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.85% ▼ (-0.06)
3-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 23.49%
2-2 @ 6.48% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.85% ▼ (-0.06)
3-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 23.49%
Italy
1-2
@
7.45%
▲
(+0.09)
0-1 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 4.07% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.65% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 5% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 30.67%
0-1 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 4.07% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.65% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 5% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 30.67%
Head to Head
Build-up
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Ficonsport-375128-0260-6ab6ea8e6384f855068275.jpg)