World Cup Qualifying - Europe Gameweek 28
Italy
Mar 26, 2026 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Gewiss Stadium
N. Ireland
  • Sandro Tonali 56' goal
  • Federico Gatti 63' yellowcard
  • Pio Esposito 63' yellowcard
  • Mateo Retegui 64' yellowcard
  • Federico Gatti 64' yellowcard
  • Pio Esposito 64' yellowcard
  • Moise Kean 80' goal
  • Niccolò Pisilli 83' yellowcard
  • Marco Palestra 83' yellowcard
  • Giacomo Raspadori 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paul Patrick Smyth 68'
  • yellowcard James Tyrrell Reid 79'
  • yellowcard Joshua Brendan David Magennis 79'
  • yellowcard James Tyrrell Reid 80'
  • yellowcard Joshua Brendan David Magennis 80'

Italy vs Northern Ireland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 71.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.52% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 10.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.93%) and 3-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%) , while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result

Italy 71.18%
Draw 18.52%
Northern Ireland 10.31%

Both Teams to Score: 

44.67%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.5%
Under 1.5 23.5%
Over 2.5 54.49%
Under 2.5 45.51%
Over 3.5 34.19% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 65.78%
Over 4.5 23.96% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 4.5 76.04% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Italy 52.39%
Draw 32.78%
Northern Ireland 14.83%

Team To Score First

Italy 69.82%
No Goal 6.73%
Northern Ireland 23.45%

Corners

Over 8 54.87%
Equal 8 10.72%
Under 8 34.41%
Over 9 44.17%
Equal 9 10.71%
Under 9 45.13%
Over 10.5 34.27%
Under 10.5 65.73%

Italy Goals

Over 1.5 63.03% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 36.97% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 37.48% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 62.52% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 19.02%
Under 3.5 80.98%

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5 39.49% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 60.51% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 13.21% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 86.79% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 3.46% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 96.54% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 0.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 99.09% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Italy 71.17%
Draw 18.52%
Northern Ireland 10.32%
Italy
1-0 @ 13.04%
2-0 @ 12.93%
3-0 @ 8.92% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.54% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.25% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.59% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 18.9%
Total : 71.17%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.75%
0-0 @ 6.73%
2-2 @ 3.22%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 18.52%
Northern Ireland
0-1 @ 3.74%
1-2 @ 2.62% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.79% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 10.32%

Head to Head

World Cup Qualifying - Europe
N. Ireland
Nov 15, 2021 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Italy
  • Josh Magennis 57' yellowcard
  • Bailey Peacock-Farrell 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sandro Tonali 9'
World Cup Qualifying - Europe
Italy
Mar 25, 2021 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Ennio Tardini
N. Ireland
  • Domenico Berardi 14' goal
  • Ciro Immobile 39' goal
  • yellowcard George Saville 48'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 90'+4'

Form Data

Italy 0 - 0 Norway
Italy 1 - 4 Norway
Moldova 0 - 0 Italy
Moldova 0 - 2 Italy
Italy 0 - 0 Israel
Italy 3 - 0 Israel
N. Ireland 0 - 0 Luxembourg
N. Ireland 1 - 0 Luxembourg
Slovakia 1 - 0 N. Ireland
Slovakia 0 - 0 N. Ireland
N. Ireland 0 - 1 Germany
N. Ireland 0 - 0 TBC

Build-up

How to watch
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Head to head
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