Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2023 at 5pm UK

Ludogorets Arena

Bulgaria
0 - 2
Lithuania

Antov (8'), Kraev (21'), Petkov (60'), Gruev (68'), Despodov (71')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sirvys (45', 55')
Gineitis (19')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Bulgaria and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Montenegro 2-1 Bulgaria
Sunday, September 10 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	4	6	10
2	Serbia	5	5	10
3	Montenegro	5	0	8
4	Bulgaria	5	-5	2
5	Lithuania	5	-6	2

Lithuania

Last Game: Lithuania 1-3 Serbia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 19.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Lithuania
56.35% ( -2.14)	24.14% ( 0.5)	19.51% ( 1.64)

Both teams to score 47.55% (

1.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.1% (

0.25)

52.9% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.49% (

0.21)

74.51% (

-0.21)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.37% (

-0.7)

18.63% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.06% (

-1.19)

49.94% (

1.19)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.43% (

2.05)

41.57% (

-2.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.94% (

1.75)

78.06% (

-1.75)

Score Analysis

Bulgaria 56.34%

Lithuania 19.51%

Draw 24.14%

Bulgaria	Draw	Lithuania
1-0 @ 13.01% ( -0.42) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.62) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.49) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 56.34%	1-1 @ 11.42% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.24) Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.14%	0-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.39) 0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.29) 1-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.19) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.02% Total : 19.51%