Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Lithuania
1 - 3
Serbia

Paulauskas (45')
Cernych (23'), Paulauskas (35')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Mitrovic (21', 32', 43')
Zivkovic (38'), Milinkovic-Savic (84'), Mitrovic (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Lithuania and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Serbia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Serbia 1-2 Hungary
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	4	6	10
2	Serbia	4	3	7
3	Montenegro	4	-1	5
4	Lithuania	4	-4	2
5	Bulgaria	4	-4	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
Lithuania	Draw	Serbia
8.87% ( 0.24)	16.87% ( 0.3)	74.26% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 41.96% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.06% (

-0.55)

44.93% (

0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.71% (

-0.53)

67.29% (

0.53)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.89% (

0.18)

53.11% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.28% (

0.12)

86.71% (

-0.12)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.48% (

-0.28)

10.51% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.8% (

-0.64)

34.19% (

0.64)

Score Analysis

Lithuania 8.87%

Serbia 74.24%

Draw 16.87%

Lithuania	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.7% Total : 8.87%	1-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 16.87%	0-2 @ 14.16% 0-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 10.63% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 6.73% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 5.99% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 2.7% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.71% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 74.24%