Euro Champ Qualifying
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Fedor Cernych
23'
-
Gytis Paulauskas
35'
-
Gytis Paulauskas
45'
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Aleksandar Mitrovic
21'
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Aleksandar Mitrovic
32'
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Andrija Zivkovic
38'
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Aleksandar Mitrovic
43'
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Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
84'
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Stefan Mitrovic
90'+1'
Lithuania vs Serbia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
Result
Lithuania
8.87%
▲
(+0.24)
Draw
16.87%
▲
(+0.31)
Serbia
74.26%
▼
(-0.55)
Both Teams to Score:
41.96%
▲
(+0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5
55.06%
▼
(-0.56)
Under 2.5
44.93%
▲
(+0.56)
Over 3.5
32.71%
▼
(-0.54)
Under 3.5
67.29%
▲
(+0.54)
Over 4.5
16.58%
▼
(-0.39)
Under 4.5
83.41%
▲
(+0.39)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5
46.89%
▲
(+0.19)
Under 0.5
53.11%
▼
(-0.19)
Over 1.5
13.28%
▲
(+0.12)
Under 1.5
86.71%
▼
(-0.12)
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5
89.48%
▼
(-0.29)
Under 0.5
10.51%
▲
(+0.29)
Over 1.5
65.8%
▼
(-0.65)
Under 1.5
34.19%
▲
(+0.65)
Score analysis
Lithuania
8.87%
Draw
16.87%
Serbia
74.24%
Lithuania
1-0
@
3.53%
▲
(+0.11)
2-1 @ 2.52% ▲ (+0.06)
2-0 @ 1.12% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 8.87%
2-1 @ 2.52% ▲ (+0.06)
2-0 @ 1.12% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 8.87%
Draw
1-1
@
7.96%
▲
(+0.14)
0-0 @ 5.58% ▲ (+0.14)
2-2 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 16.87%
0-0 @ 5.58% ▲ (+0.14)
2-2 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 16.87%
Serbia
0-2
@
14.16%
0-1 @ 12.57% ▲ (+0.16)
0-3 @ 10.63% ▼ (-0.13)
1-2 @ 8.96% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 6.73% ▼ (-0.05)
0-4 @ 5.99% ▼ (-0.15)
1-4 @ 3.79% ▼ (-0.08)
0-5 @ 2.7% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 2.13% ▼ (-0.01)
1-5 @ 1.71% ▼ (-0.06)
2-4 @ 1.2% ▼ (-0.02)
0-6 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 74.24%
0-1 @ 12.57% ▲ (+0.16)
0-3 @ 10.63% ▼ (-0.13)
1-2 @ 8.96% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 6.73% ▼ (-0.05)
0-4 @ 5.99% ▼ (-0.15)
1-4 @ 3.79% ▼ (-0.08)
0-5 @ 2.7% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 2.13% ▼ (-0.01)
1-5 @ 1.71% ▼ (-0.06)
2-4 @ 1.2% ▼ (-0.02)
0-6 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 74.24%