Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 51.6%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 25.41% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.