Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 80.27%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 6.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.99%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (2.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.