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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for AZ had a probability of 35.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest AZ win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 39.9% | 24.79% | 35.31% |
| Both teams to score 58.32% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.14% | 44.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.78% | 67.21% |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.59% | 22.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.07% | 55.93% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.17% | 24.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.57% | 59.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.67% 1-0 @ 8.32% 2-0 @ 6.22% 3-1 @ 4.32% 3-0 @ 3.1% 3-2 @ 3.01% 4-1 @ 1.62% 4-0 @ 1.16% 4-2 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.34% Total : 39.9% | 1-1 @ 11.59% 2-2 @ 6.04% 0-0 @ 5.57% 3-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.79% | 1-2 @ 8.08% 0-1 @ 7.75% 0-2 @ 5.4% 1-3 @ 3.75% 2-3 @ 2.8% 0-3 @ 2.51% 1-4 @ 1.31% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.31% |